Energy storage · e-fuels · techno-economics

What would it take to fly the Philippines on e-kerosene?

Batteries are too heavy for most flights, so aviation needs drop-in liquid fuels. This study sizes the solar or wind capacity, land and investment needed to replace all Philippine jet fuel with e-kerosene. The fuel is made from CO₂ captured directly from the air (DAC) and hydrogen from renewable electricity.

Author Billriz CondorCourse Energy Storage, BME 2025

Try the calculator Read the paper (PDF) See the code

The production pathway

Power-to-liquid e-kerosene with CO₂ from direct air capture, the configuration assumed in the study (Seymour et al., 2024).

☀️ Solar or 🌬️ windRenewable electricity

Electrolysis + DACGreen H₂ and CO₂ captured from the air

Fischer–Tropsch(2n+1) H₂ + n CO → CₙH₂ₙ₊₂ + n H₂O

✈️ e-kerosene40% of the e-fuel blend · 10.1 kWh per litre

Calculator

Change the assumptions and every result on this page updates. The defaults are the values used in the paper.

Jet fuel demand Energy to make 1 L of e-kerosene Solar capacity factor Wind capacity factor

Technology cost year

New capacity needed compared with national targets

Gigawatts of installed renewable capacity

Investment by route

Up-front CAPEX in billions of euros (2025 prices)

View as table

The land footprint

The squares are drawn to scale by area. Wind turbines need wide spacing, so wind needs far more land than solar even though it needs fewer megawatts. Much of that land can still be farmed between turbines.

Key findings

€4.8–7.9 billion up frontis the 2030-cost CAPEX to switch all current jet fuel to e-kerosene, falling to €3.4–6.0 billion with 2050 technology prices.

28–42% more renewableson top of the country's 20 GW goal for 2040 would be needed to power fuel production alone.

Solar uses about 5% of wind's landbut needs 18–23 million panels. Land use has to be planned carefully either way.

Cost is the deciding factorPlant CAPEX drives the final fuel price, so falling DAC and renewable costs are critical for this pathway to work.

Data & assumptions

Parameter	Value	Unit	Source
Aviation fuel demand (PH)	33,700	barrels/day	TheGlobalEconomy.com
Energy to produce e-fuel blend	25.2	kWh/L	Seymour et al. (2024)
e-kerosene fraction of blend	0.4	L/L	Seymour et al. (2024)
Capacity factor: solar / wind	0.20 / 0.30	–	AboitizPower
Renewable capacity: today / 2030 / 2040 goal	8.4 / 15.3 / 20	GW	Energy Tracker Asia
Solar power density	0.87	MW/ha	Bolinger et al. (2022)
Wind land footprint	34	ha/MW	NREL
Solar PV CAPEX 2030 / 2050	430 / 330	€/kW	Sens et al. (2022)
Onshore wind CAPEX 2030 / 2050	1,210 / 970	€/kW	Sens et al. (2022)
E-fuel plant CAPEX 2030 / 2050	0.85 / 0.45	€ per L/year	Lilley et al.

How it's calculated

This Python model is a line-by-line version of the project spreadsheet. It checks its results against SAF Calculations.xlsx and writes the default values this page uses. The calculator above runs the same equations in JavaScript.

analysis/saf_model.pyOpen on GitHub →

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